Using Seahawk 5K Performances To Predict 3200 Season Bests

Photo by Craig Amoss

Most outdoor track meets in Maryland offer the same array of running events, many of which include the 3200. This weekend's slate of meets included the only one with a unique event, however: the 5000. The Seahawk Invitational gives distance runners a chance to run a race usually reserved for the fall months. Over the years this event has not only served as an early-season baseline for fitness, but a predictor for season-best 3200 times as well. Using the top 12 times in each race dating back to 2013, these two graphs indicate a strong relationship between Seahawk 5000 performance and end-of-season 3200 performance. The tables are rough approximations based on the graphs.


Approximate 5K TimeEstimated 3200 Time
15:309:25
16:009:45
16:3010:00
17:0010:15
17:3010:30



Approximated 5K TimeEstimated 3200 Time
17:3010:40
18:0011:00
18:3011:15
19:0011:30
19:3011:45
20:0012:00
20:3012:15
21:0012:30


Top 5K Performances At Seahawk Invitational Since 2012


RANKTIMEATHLETE/TEAMGRADEMEET DATEPLACE
115:08.882014
215:14.272019
315:17.242015
415:17.352016
515:23.462016
615:31.272017
715:34.892014
815:45.112020
915:45.182013
1015:45.492018
1115:48.282016
1215:48.572016
1315:48.732016
1415:53.722020
1515:54.562018
1615:57.392015
1716:04.482019
1816:04.682014
1916:09.732015
2016:10.022018
2116:10.092014
2216:11.422013
2316:12.642015
2416:12.682018
2516:13.322015
2616:13.962020
2716:24.822015
2816:27.362014
2916:31.532018
3016:31.682018
3116:36.602019
3216:37.252020
3316:39.482019
3416:40.202013
3516:41.182018
3616:42.182020
3716:42.822017
3816:45.872019
3916:47.212016
4016:50.752019
4116:51.922019
4216:54.502015
4316:54.932018
4416:57.852015
4517:00.042015
4617:00.272014
4717:02.412016
4817:04.172016
4917:09.822017
5017:10.002014



RANKTIMEATHLETE/TEAMGRADEMEET DATEPLACE
117:09.452017
217:37.082017
317:41.032018
417:50.542017
518:18.732014
618:39.642019
718:45.882018
818:53.522014
918:57.442014
1018:59.572019
1119:00.232014
1219:07.632014
1319:15.232013
1419:21.282017
1519:32.592018
1619:33.092016
1719:35.062019
1819:42.652015
1919:46.782016
2019:47.472019
2119:47.492017
2219:52.502015
2319:59.642013
2419:59.782015
2520:00.332021
2620:01.452014
2720:09.392021
2820:11.082013
2920:11.862016
3020:15.102019
3120:15.262017
3220:19.682018
3320:19.942020
3420:21.452019
3520:28.452013
3620:31.122013
3720:35.232015
3820:39.362016
3920:43.382015
4020:44.692014
4120:45.532017
4220:49.742015
4320:51.532018
4420:53.242016
4520:53.512015
4620:54.672018
4720:55.342016
4820:56.482018
4920:57.442017
5020:59.852016


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